Childhood Distal Forearm Fracture Incidence in Malmö, Sweden 1950 to 2016.

Abstract

Background Distal forearm fracture is the most common pediatric fracture. As studies have indicated time trends in fracture incidence, we wanted to update the epidemiology and estimate time trends between 1950 and 2016 in Malmö, Sweden. Methods The city of Malmö, Sweden, had 318,107 inhabitants (58,585 of the population was aged <16 years) in 2014 and one hospital. We, therefore, used the hospital diagnosis registry and hospital medical records to identify and classify distal forearm fractures 2014 to 2016 in children aged 0 to 15 years. For long-term trend calculations, we also included published data from 1950 to 2006 (resulting in 17 evaluated years) and used joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent changes (APC). To describe differences in incidence between two periods, we calculated incident rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) to describe uncertainty. Results Childhood distal forearm fracture incidence in 2014 to 2016 was 546/100,000 person-years (660 in boys and 427 in girls). The age-adjusted incidence in 2014 to 2016 and in 2005 to 2006 was similar (boys IRR 1.0, 95% CI: 0.9-1.2 and girls IRR 1.1, 95% CI: 0.9-1.3). Time-trend analyses from 1950 to 2016 revealed increasing age-adjusted incidence in both boys (APC +0.9%, 95% CI: 0.7-1.2) and girls (APC +0.6%, 95% CI: 0.3-0.9). Conclusion Distal forearm fracture incidence was similar in 2014 to 2016 and in 2005 to 2006. Age-adjusted incidence had increased in both sexes from 1950 to 2016. Level of Evidence This is a Level III b study.