Child Mortality Influencing Fertility in Estonia during the Demographic Transition

Abstract

The correlation between infant and child mortality and fertility holds an important place in the demographic transition theory. The Princeton project that aimed to empirically check the validity of the theory with reference to the material of European states, however, produced mixed if not contradictory results, which led to a disagreement on the importance of infant mortality for fertility transition. This research considers the peculiarities of Estonia’s demographic transition and is relevant because as early as the nineteenth century, Estonia was among the countries whose fertility decline was the fastest. This article refers to a nominative source, the Family Register of the Estonian Republic, and adds to a series of research works studying the correlation between infant and child mortality and fertility. More specifically, the article focuses on the fertility histories of two generations of Estonian women born between 1860 and 1879 and 1880 and 1899 and reaching childbearing age at the beginning and at the end of the demographic transition period respectively, as well as Estonia’s industrialisation and urbanisation. The data received as a result of the analysis testify to the fact that parents who had lost a child aimed at making up for the loss; as a result, new pregnancies were more likely to occur following the loss of children. In scholarly literature, this phenomenon is referred to as replacement, and in Estonia it was particularly noticeable among women residing in cities and those of the later generation which resulted from the spread of control over reproductive behaviour. The research demonstrates that in terms of spacing, child deaths decreased the interval before the next birth. This is a mix of both deliberate behaviour and a biological effect caused by the death of an infant that has been breastfed. The effect on the spacing, however, does not gain strength among urban women and women of the later generation, but rather the contrary, and the decrease in the birth ratio was not so much due to an increase in the intervals between births, but due to the conscious decision of Estonians to have a small family.