CHIBA score: a novel model for predicting 3-month mortality in a cohort of Decompensated Liver Disease (DCLD)

Abstract

BackgroundDecompensated liver disease (DCLD) has high mortality, and its prediction is important to prognosticate and prioritize patients for liver transplantation. MELD, MELD variants, and CTP were widely tested for mortality prediction with few drawbacks. The aim of the study is to propose a new prognostic model for DCLD which is better than the existing scores.Materials and methodsRetrospective study with 321 DCLD patients were enrolled. Patient relatives were telephonically contacted regarding date of death, and mortality at 3 months was assessed. Logistic regression was done, coefficient of beta of independent variables were found out, and a new CHIBA score was proposed.CHIBA score = creatinine × 0.6 + HE × 0.4+ INR × 0.8 + bilirubin × 0.125 + ascites × 1.2) where C stands for creatinine, H for hepatic encephalopathy, I for INR, B for bilirubin, and A for ascites.ResultsCHIBA score has AUROC of 0.793 (at a cutoff of > 5.5, it has a sensitivity of 66% and specificity of 76%) compared to MELD-Na of 0.735 (cutoff > 25, sensitivity 65%, and specificity 72%); MELD of 0.727 (cutoff > 17 sensitivity of 80.37% and specificity of 55.14%); I-MELD of 0.72; MESO index of 0.72; and UKELD of 0.686. For validation, 214 patients were selected, and AUROC of CHIBA score in the validation cohort was 0.77. At a cutoff of > 5.5, it has a sensitivity of 60% and specificity of 77%.ConclusionCHIBA score is superior to MELD and MELD variants in predicting 3-month mortality, and it is validated in an external cohort. It can be calculated at bedside as it is a simple score with no logarithmic variables in it.