Chen Shui‑bian and Cross‑Strait Relations

Abstract

This article discusses Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's China policy and the impact this has on the cross-strait relationship. Chen is unlikely to deviate from the pro-independence stand of the Democratic and Progressive Party (DPP). For the short-term, Beijing has good reason not to use force, but resorts to both well-calculated pressure (on the DPP) and concessions (to the opposition), in the hope that this may eventually weaken the DPP. This neiwai jiaokun (internal trouble and external pressure) may emasculate Chen's will and ability to push for independence. Even a declaration of independence by Taiwan, if without U.S. support, will be manageable to Beijing, which has been psychologically, politically, and militarily prepared for such a contingency. The declaration can only pose a threat if it is used by a major foreign power for other objectives. Therefore, the Chinese reading of U.S. strategic intentions is crucial in deciding what action China will take on Taiwan. Introduction In Taiwan's 18 March 2000 presidential election, the Kuomintang (KMT) government was defeated, for the first time after 55 years in power, by the pro-independence Democratic and Progressive Party (DPP). Chen Shui-bian's election as President has shocked many people in Beijing into questioning the feasibility of its existing Taiwan policy. The following issues have been raised: * Whether China's peaceful reunification strategy still works. * Whether the United States merely wants to maintain cross-strait stability or promote Taiwan's independence; or use Taiwan not only to slow China's rise but also to eventually dismember China. * Whether China should continue to follow Deng Xiaoping's policy of keeping a low profile and avoiding conflict when this policy cannot stop the determined push from both Taiwan and the United States. * Whether China's modernization will be better served by solving the Taiwan problem now or later. * Whether force can be avoided in solving the Taiwan problem. If not, will it cost more to use it now or later? Beijing has thus been plunged into a process of policy discussion and reformulation. While Beijing is watching and pondering, Chen Shuibian's various gestures have so far not made things better. This article discusses Chen's election as well as his inauguration speech and China policy and the impact these will have on the cross-strait relationship. Taiwan's Presidential Election of 2000 There were five candidates for President in the 18 March 2000 elections: the KMT's Lien Chan; the DPP's Chen Shui-bian; independent candidate Soong Chu-yu; the New Party's Li Ao; and independent candidate Hsu Hsin-liang. Though not as dominant as it was in the 1996 presidential election, cross-strait policy remained a very prominent issue in the election. Debates on this issue had attracted greater attention after President Lee Teng-hui announced his two states theory in July 1999. [1] On Reunification/Independence The three presidential campaign front-runners, Lien, Soong, and Chen, had de-emphasized the unification/independence issue, as many voters were afraid of armed conflict with China. Though once a vocal advocate of Taiwanese independence, Chen Shui-bian was far less fervent in public about independence. He vowed that he would not declare Taiwan independent (assuming Beijing did not move to retake Taiwan by force) nor abandon the government's title of the Republic of China (ROC). But his Long live Taiwan independence! chant heard during the campaign made many suspect that his new stance stemmed merely from political expedience. His remarks often appeared ambiguous, evasive, and contradictory. While vowing not to promote a referendum on Taiwan's independence, he also supported the concept of having the Taiwanese people determine their own destiny. While promising not to write Lee's two states theory into the Constitution on one occasion, on other occasions he advocated amending the Constitution to give legal effect to the theory. …