Abstract
The article deals with authoritarian regimes based on charismatic leadership which can be also called caesarean. It analyzes the existing caesarean regimes of the Middle East and North Africa: their nature (progressive vs. conservative), characteristic features and prospects of their evolution. To achieve this goal the author uses a synthetic analytical approach based on ideas of Max Weber and Antonio Gramshi. This approach includes analysis of a number of key factors, such as conditions for eruption of a charismatic leader (‘Caesar’), sources of legitimization, mechanisms of control and power transit, progressive or conservative nature of the regime, potential for turning the caesarean regime into a permanent one based on tradition of charismatic rule. The main conclusion of the paper is that the Middle East and North Africa are witnessing the arrival of the third generation of charismatic leaders, who will follow conservative instead of progressive agenda. On the regional scale it will bring relative stability to international relations (at least among the Arab states) while at domestic level the pressure of unresolved political, economic and social problems will be mounting resulting in a new wave of revolutions and instability in the midterm.
Highlights
The article deals with authoritarian regimes based on charismatic leadership which can be called caesarean
It analyzes the existing caesarean regimes of the Middle East and North Africa: their nature, characteristic features and prospects of their evolution. To achieve this goal the author uses a synthetic analytical approach based on ideas of Max Weber and Antonio Gramshi
The main conclusion of the paper is that the Middle East and North Africa are witnessing the arrival of the third generation of charismatic leaders, who will follow conservative instead of progressive agenda
Summary
Харизматическое лидерство в условиях Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки в XXI веке: региональная специфика и перспективы эволюции феномена. Цель работы заключается в анализе природы современных вождистских режимов на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке, выявлении их особенностей и оценке перспектив их эволюции. Исследование показало, что при изучении вождистских режимов (и прогнозировании их возникновения) следует учитывать комплекс факторов: условия прихода к власти харизматического лидера, наличие дополнительных источников легитимации, наличие механизмов контроля и передачи власти, прогрессивный или революционный характер цезаризма, перспективы придания харизматическому лидерству традиционного характера. Основной вывод исследования заключается в том, что Ближний Восток и Северная Африка находятся на пороге прихода третьего поколения харизматических лидеров (в республиканских странах), которые в большинстве своем будут консервативными, что с точки зрения международных отношений обеспечит относительную региональную стабильность, но приведёт к накоплению внутренних проблем с перспективой новых революционных потрясений.
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