Abstract
BackgroundMalaria remains a significant health problem in Bangladesh affecting 13 of 64 districts. The risk of malaria is variable across the endemic areas and throughout the year. A better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in malaria risk and the determinants driving the variation are crucial for the appropriate targeting of interventions under the National Malaria Control and Prevention Programme.MethodsNumbers of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases reported by month in 2007, across the 70 endemic thanas (sub-districts) in Bangladesh, were assembled from health centre surveillance reports. Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with fixed effects for monthly rainfall, maximum temperature and elevation, and random effects for thanas, with a conditional autoregressive prior spatial structure.ResultsThe annual incidence of reported cases was 34.0 and 9.6 cases/10,000 population for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively and the population of the 70 malaria-endemic thanas was approximately 13.5 million in 2007. Incidence of reported cases for both types of malaria was highest in the mountainous south-east of the country (the Chittagong Hill Tracts). Models revealed statistically significant positive associations between the incidence of reported P. vivax and P. falciparum cases and rainfall and maximum temperature.ConclusionsThe risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax was spatially variable across the endemic thanas of Bangladesh and also highly seasonal, suggesting that interventions should be targeted and timed according to the risk profile of the endemic areas. Rainfall, temperature and elevation are major factors driving the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria in Bangladesh.
Highlights
Malaria remains a significant health problem in Bangladesh affecting 13 of 64 districts
Insight into the underlying ecological mechanisms both inhibiting and propelling malaria transmission has led to research into malaria early warning systems (MEWS) to be able to predict disease patterns based on known relationships between the disease and ecological variables [4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]
Through the more focussed implementation of interventions, the findings presented here have the potential to enhance the effectiveness of the national malaria control programme and provide valuable baseline epidemiological information upon which to chart the progress of the programme
Summary
Malaria remains a significant health problem in Bangladesh affecting 13 of 64 districts. A better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in malaria risk and the determinants driving the variation are crucial for the appropriate targeting of interventions under the National Malaria Control and Prevention Programme. Spatial and temporal variability in malaria transmission are known to be driven partly by ecological factors that affect the survival and population size of anopheline vectors. Insight into the underlying ecological mechanisms both inhibiting and propelling malaria transmission has led to research into malaria early warning systems (MEWS) to be able to predict disease patterns based on known relationships between the disease and ecological variables [4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
