Characterizing the relationship between urban sprawl and water demand in Dodoma Urban District, Tanzania: 1992–2029

Abstract

ABSTRACT Rapid urban growth is making the planning of water resources increasingly uncertain, highlighting the need for plausible forecasts of water demand to achieve optimum allocation among competing uses. This study applies a population balance model and statistical modelling to investigate the relationship between water demand and urban sprawl in Dodoma Urban District in Tanzania. The findings revealed a positive but complex and non-linear relationship that is best characterized by a quadratic model: Predicted water demand (in million m3) = −1.206 + 0.285*(Urban growth in km2) – 0.002*(Urban growth in km2)squared. The model is a first step in characterizing the determinants of water demand for better planning and management of scarce water resources in a data-constrained but rapidly urbanizing region. We recommend striking a balance between desired future urban growth and projected water demand and prioritizing financial investments to develop alternative water supply sources.