Characterizing the dynamic linkages between environmental changes and wheat Fusarium head blight epidemics

Abstract

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a prevalent wheat disease, mainly influenced by environmental factors, such as irradiance, temperature, precipitation, and CO2 levels. Elucidating the relationship between FHB outbreaks and environmental changes is crucial for predictive models and control measures. This study employs historical data to map the dynamic associations between environmental changes and FHB epidemics within a phase space. Complex networks are constructed to analyze the dynamic relationships, followed by an examination and clustering of their topological features and a discussion of similarities and differences. The results revealed structural similarities between the impact of precipitation and CO2 on FHB, as well as between temperature and irradiance on FHB. In addition, precipitation consistently exerts a persistent and sensitive influence on FHB epidemics, while temperature exhibits an inverse relationship. Elevated carbon emissions enhance the effect of CO2 on FHB, while the effect of irradiance on FHB epidemics varies with the solar cycle. This study provides a novel approach to detect and understand the dynamic relationships between FHB epidemics and environmental changes, contributing to enhanced disease surveillance and assessment within complex agriculture systems.