Characterizing stages of COVID-19 epidemics: a nonlinear physics perspective based on amplitude equations.

Abstract

The relevant dynamics underlying COVID-19 waves is described from an amplitude space perspective. To this end, the amplitude dynamics of infected populations is considered in different stages of epidemic waves. Eigenvectors and their corresponding amplitudes are derived analytically for low-dimensional models and by means of computational methods for high-dimensional models. It is shown that the amplitudes of all eigenvectors as functions of time can be tracked through the diverse stages of COVID-19 waves featuring jumps at the stage boundaries. In particular, it is shown that under certain circumstances the initial, outbreak stage and the final, subsiding stage of an epidemic wave are primarily determined by the unstable eigenvector of the initial stage and its corresponding remnant vector of the final stage. The corresponding amplitude captures most of the dynamics of the emerging and subsiding epidemics such that the problem at hand effectively becomes one dimensional leading to a dramatic reduction of the complexity of the problem at hand. Explicitly demonstrated for the first-wave COVID-19 epidemics of the year 2020 in the state of New York and Pakistan are given.