Abstract
Paddy fields have become a major global anthropogenic CH4 emission source, and climate change affects CH4 emissions from paddy ecosystems by changing crop growth and the soil environment. It has been recognized that Heilongjiang Province has become an important source of CH4 emission due to its dramatically increased rice planting area, while less attention has been paid to characterize the effects of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of CH4 fluxes. In this study, we used the calibrated and validated Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model and DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate historical and future CH4 fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of four global climate models (GCMs) in Heilongjiang Province. During 1960–2015, the average CH4 fluxes and climatic tendencies were 145.56 kg C/ha and 11.88 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively. Spatially, the CH4 fluxes showed a decreasing trend from west to east, and the climatic tendencies in the northern and western parts were higher. During 2021–2080, the annual average CH4 fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to be 213.46 kg C/ha and 252.19 kg C/ha, respectively, and their spatial distributions were similar to the historical distribution. The average climatic tendencies were 13.40 kg C/ha/(10a) and 29.86 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively, which decreased from west to east. The simulation scenario analysis showed that atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature affected CH4 fluxes by changing soil organic carbon (SOC) content and plant biomass. This study indicated that a paddy ecosystem in a cold region is an important part of China’s greenhouse gas emission inventory in future scenarios.
Highlights
Paddy fields are important source of greenhouse gas emissions, and CH4 emissions from paddy fields accounts for about 20% of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions annually [1]
With the gradual increase of the rice-planting area in Heilongjiang Province, the study of the impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal distributions of CH4 emissions from paddy fields in Heilongjiang Province need to be introduced as a matter of concern
Kazumori et al [27] used an improved DNDC-Rice model to analyze the effects of representative concentration paths (RCPs) 4.5 on soil organic carbon (SOC) content in a 30-cm soil layer, the biomass of the aboveground part, and the CH4 fluxes in double-cropping paddy fields in Suphan Buri, Thailand, from 2000 to 2060
Summary
Paddy fields are important source of greenhouse gas emissions, and CH4 emissions from paddy fields accounts for about 20% of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions annually [1]. With the gradual increase of the rice-planting area in Heilongjiang Province, the study of the impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal distributions of CH4 emissions from paddy fields in Heilongjiang Province need to be introduced as a matter of concern. These experiments revealed the mechanism of CH4 fluxes from paddy fields in cold regions and provided reliable data support [28,29,30]. It was difficult for these site experiments to estimate CH4 emissions over a larger area, and the temporal and spatial variation of CH4 emissions from paddy fields in cold regions under climate change is still unclear. Soil, Dimensionality reduction for crop and farming practices
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