Abstract
There is an increasing need to develop bushfire monitoring and early warning systems for Jamaica and the Caribbean. However, there are few studies that examine fire variability for the region. In this study the MODIS C6 Fire Archive for 2001–2019 is used to characterize bushfire frequencies across Jamaica and to relate the variability to large-scale climate. Using additive mixed model and backward linear regression, the MODIS represents 80% and 73% of the local Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB) data variability for 2010–2015, respectively. However, the MODIS values are smaller by a factor of approximately 30. The MODIS climatology over Jamaica reveals a primary peak in March and a secondary maximum in July, coinciding with months of minimum rainfall. A significant positive linear trend is observed for July-August bushfire events over 2001–2019 and represents 29% of the season’s variability. Trends in all-island totals in other seasons or annually were not statistically significant. However, positive annual trends in Zone 2 (eastern Jamaica) are statistically significant and may support an indication that a drying trend is evolving over the east. Significant 5-year and 3.5-year periodicities are also evident for April–June and September–November variability, respectively. Southern Jamaica and particularly the parish of Clarendon, known for its climatological dryness, show the greatest fire frequencies. The study provides evidence of linkages between fire occurrences over Jamaica and oceanic and atmospheric variability over the Atlantic and Pacific. For example, all-island totals show relatively strong association with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The study suggests that development of an early warning system for bushfire frequency that includes climate indices is possible and shows strong potential for fire predictions.
Highlights
Bushfires are a growing concern for small island developing states (SIDs) like Jamaica and other Caribbean islands and their occurrence each year has immense social, economic and environmental impacts
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB) displays a primary peak in March and a secondary maximum in July, coinciding with months of minimum monthly rainfall
Generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) and backward linear regression (BLR) analyses are used to investigate the predictive skill of MODIS in relation to the JFB
Summary
Bushfires are a growing concern for small island developing states (SIDs) like Jamaica and other Caribbean islands and their occurrence each year has immense social, economic and environmental impacts. Some climate conditions promoting fire activity include rainfall deficits, extreme temperatures, heat waves and dry windy conditions that may occur in relation to large-scale modes such as the El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO). These promote the availability of fuels for fire as well as mechanisms for fire spread. While the impacts of fire events are apparently increasing within the Caribbean, there are few studies and reports that examine fire variability for this region (e.g., [5,6,7,8]). Robbins [7] indicates that the Caribbean lags areas in the United States in terms of fire prediction, monitoring, education, prevention, and analysis of the effects of fire on ecosystems and society
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