Abstract
Making cities smart represents a major potential for sustainable development, where both the quality of life and the economy improve. Implementing new and efficient solutions in a smart city involves a large spectrum of uncertainties related to the size and project complexity. Characterization and assessment of the variables uncertainty in planning methodology seem necessary to reach the best decision about the best approach to achieve favorable realization outcomes for planned projects. By including uncertainties in the planning, assessment makes it possible to calculate result uncertainties for all expectations, and project cost-effectiveness. In this way, planning can be improved, if the most important parameters of result uncertainties are identified, better defined, and controlled. This study describes a parameter uncertainty characterization methodology applied on the cost-benefit analysis of smart city development with a case study, focused on smart metering infrastructure. Parameter uncertainty characterization is performed based on its variable nature (epistemic and aleatory), time-dependency, and the available information. Cost-benefit analysis results are given as both point value and as uncertainties. Uncertainty is considered for 25 variables of investment and operating costs, and benefits estimation. The presented methodology in smart city planning provides a way to better identify the critical parameters for achieving the defined objectives.
Highlights
The constant growth of cities leads to increased demand for enhanced infrastructure and more efficient use of energy, i.e., making cities smart
Joint Research Centre (JRC) and EPRII methodologies are using the basic principle of Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) like the EC but with the addition of strictly defined formulas for benefits calculations of smart metering deployment
The presented methodology for cost-benefit with uncertainty analysis will be applied to a project for smart metering deployment in the city of Ludbreg, Croatia
Summary
The constant growth of cities leads to increased demand for enhanced infrastructure and more efficient use of energy, i.e., making cities smart. Cities consume more than three-quarters of the total global energy and cause 80% of the total CO2 emissions, with an annual growth rate of almost two per cent [1] This places city planning and development at the center of the sustainable development challenge, with specific goals [2]. The United Nations “Paris Agreement” [4] presents the EU with the high aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and because of it, the EU has created the vision of the long-term development strategy to limit global warming to 1.5 ◦ C compared to pre-industrial times, known as “Clean Planet for All” [5] These goals may be achieved through energy efficiency, savings, use of renewable energy sources, etc
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