Characterization of the uncertainty of loop current metrics using a multidecadal numerical simulation and altimeter observations

Abstract

Satellite altimetry is routinely used to monitor Loop Current intrusion and eddy shedding in the Gulf of Mexico. Statistical estimates of the location and variability of the Loop Current vary significantly among published studies and it is not obvious whether these differences are caused by observational errors, different analysis methodologies, processing and gridding of altimeter data products, or the highly variable nature of the Loop Current system itself. This study analyzes the uncertainty of basic Loop Current statistical estimates derived from altimeter observations, i.e. the northern and western extent, the mean Loop Current eddy separation period, and the relationship between the Loop Current retreat latitude and eddy separation period. The robustness of these statistics is assessed using sea surface height data from a 1/25° free-running multidecadal numerical simulation of the Gulf of Mexico HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model. A suite of sensitivity tests is performed to identify sources of uncertainty in the Loop Current statistics. The tests demonstrate that the Loop Current metrics from the altimeter fields are less sensitive to the choice of the reference sea surface height mean field or Loop Current front definition than to satellite sampling patterns. Analysis of the model and altimetry-derived sea surface height fields shows that the Loop Current variability changes between regimes of rapid and slow eddy formation cycles. This analysis leads to a discussion of the stationarity of the LC system. The mean separation period estimated from the altimeter fields for 1993–2010 is 8±1.8 months. This uncertainty is larger than the errors introduced by the satellite data processing and gridding technique, which is on the order of O (1 month). It is shown that the available altimetry observational record is not long enough at this time to be able to estimate the mean separation period within one-month uncertainty.