Characterization of the Epidemic Process of HIV Infection in a Region With a High Level of HIV Prevalence Over a Long Period of Time (Example of the Tyumen Region)

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to analyze the dynamics of the development of the HIV epidemic process in the Tyumen region in 1993–2018 (without autonomous okrugs).Materials and methods. The work used epidemiological, descriptive-evaluative, analytical and statistical research methods, with the calculation of intensive (incidence, incidence) and extensive indicators (structure of incidence, incidence), determining the trend of the epidemic process.Results and conclusions. As of the end of 2018, more than 1,2% of the population is infected with HIV in the Tyumen region. The average long-term growth rate is +259,9% (expressed). Over the 26 years of HIV registration, men have been predominantly infected, the route of infection is parenteral (narcotic). Since 2002, the proportion of sexual transmission of HIV has doubled, sexual heterosexual transmission has become the leading one at the present stage of the development of the epidemic process (59,8%). A «portrait» of a modern HIV-infected person in the region can be considered a predominantly unemployed man or woman (taking into account the trend) aged 40–49 years and older, with a secondary specialized education, subject to deviant behavior (including when using drugs). At the present stage, there is an obvious redistribution of the structure of the identified HIV-infected people towards the predominance of older age groups and pensioners with an increase in HIV +52,8%. The decrease in the growth rate and the incidence rate of HIV over the past 3 years is a positive trend amid the generalized nature of the spread of HIV.