Characterization of model uncertainty in predicting axial resistance of piles driven into clay

Abstract

This paper summarizes 239 static load tests to evaluate the performance of four static design methods for axial resistance of driven piles in clay. The methods are ISO 19901-4:2016, SHANSEP, ICP-05, and NGI-05. The database is categorized into four groups depending on the load type (compression or uplift) and pile tip condition (open or closed end). The model uncertainty in resistance prediction is quantified as a ratio between measured and calculated resistance, which is called a model factor. The measured resistance is interpreted as a load producing a settlement level of 10% pile diameter. Database studies show that the four methods present a similar accuracy, where the mean and coefficient of variation (COV) of the model factor are around 1 and 0.3, respectively. The COV values are smaller than those for driven piles in sand available in literature. The model statistics determined from the database are applicable to a simplified or full probabilistic form of reliability-based design (RBD) of driven piles in clay. As an illustration, the resistance factors in load and resistance factor design (LRFD, a simplified form of RBD) are calibrated by Monte Carlo simulations.