Characterization of long period return values of extreme daily temperature and precipitation in the CMIP6 models: Part 2, projections of future change

Abstract

Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, projected future changes in selected extreme daily temperature and precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models are calculated and compared. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their projections of simulated extreme daily temperature and precipitation at specified global warming targets.