Characterization of gas and oil portfolios of exploration and production assets using a methodology that integrates value, risk and time

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Asset portfolio modelling and optimization are critical activities for upstream (exploration and production) gas and oil companies in order for decision makers to establish the combined value of their assets and to select assets for further development, divestment and/or acquisition. However, it is an activity that is typically not conducted in a standardized and systematic way, with many companies relying on simple deterministic discounted cash flow asset-value-roll-up analysis, but missing vital insight to the subtle, but significant characteristics of their portfolios. A more systematic, multi-stage stochastic methodology is proposed to reveal detailed characterization of gas and oil asset portfolios in terms of value, risk and timing. The non-linear nature of risk is taken into account in an approach to risk analysis that begins at the asset level and progresses through to the pre-corporate rolled-up asset portfolio to post-tax portfolio factoring in the corporate financial dimension. The proposed methodology emphasizes the importance of considering financial and non-financial metrics (i.e. production, reserves and timing) over each year of a planning horizon. In addition, those same metrics summed over all the years of a planning horizon, expressed in terms of risked value and downside risk of the portfolio failing to achieve certain strategic targets identifies feasible envelopes for possible asset combinations. The downside risk measures apply important modifications to standard risk-variance analysis, introducing flexibility into the approach to suit diverse strategic objectives of potential portfolio holders. Further analysis of those risk versus risked value feasible envelopes reveals the efficient frontiers representing the asset combinations that achieve the highest value for specific levels of downside risk. Characterizing a portfolio of gas and oil assets with such a methodology helps to frame multi-objective optimization algorithms tailored to suit the unique characteristics of each asset portfolio. Excel spreadsheets driven by visual basic for applications (VBA) macros offer the advantages of flexibility, transparency and customization to characterize asset portfolios with the methodology proposed. A small portfolio involving eleven exploration, appraisal, development and production gas and oil assets (Portfolio X) is presented to illustrate the benefits of the proposed approach to gas and oil asset portfolio characterization. The diversity in character of conventional and unconventional upstream gas assets makes a portfolio approach to their understanding extremely worthwhile.