Characterization and classification of wave storm events and wave climate on the Sea of Marmara

Abstract

This study aims to conduct a wave climate study and provide a detailed analysis of wave storm events on the Sea of Marmara based on a 40-year (1979–2018) hindcast dataset. The accuracy of the used dataset was initially investigated in terms of both climatic and storm conditions using five-year (2013–2017) measurements of significant wave height (Hm0) at the Silivri buoy station. For the wave climate, the measurements’ 5-year mean and maximum Hm0 values were compared with SWAN hindcasts. To detect wave storm events from a time series, a critical value was determined by using the mean and standard deviation of the measurements. After that, the corresponding hindcasted storms with the measurements were detected. This analysis showed that the hindcasts are compatible with the measurements not only for climatic conditions but also for storm conditions. Monthly and annual variations of mean and maximum Hm0 were examined based on a 40-year long-term wave dataset and different return period Hm0 values based on annual maximums were determined at various locations. Wave storm events in the long-term analysis have been characterized and classified based on the storm energy density (Es) in five storm categories according to their energy. Temporal analysis of wave storm events shows that there has been an increase in the number and severity of storm events in recent years. The middle regions of the sea and the northeastern coasts of Marmara Island and Kapıdağ Peninsula are the most affected regions by extreme sea conditions.