Abstract
Within the last decade increase in cholera morbidity rate in the world has been revealed (with due consideration to linear trend). For 2013 maintenance of the tendency is forecasted. Epidemics, outbreaks and importations of the infection have occurred in 109 countries around Asia, Africa, America, Europe, Australia and Oceania. Nosoarea has been expanding owing to inclusion of new administrative territories and countries into the epidemic process, some cases being registered for the first time during the seventh pandemic. Apart from the endemic territories in India and Bangladesh, formation of endemic foci in twelve African countries has been exposed, as well as continued dissemination of epidemic cholera, consecutive in time and spatially stepwise. These facts testify of the follow-up of the seventh pandemic. Moreover, V. cholerae O1 El Tor strains with classical ctx-B allele have been spreading worldwide, which coupled with factors mentioned above predetermines unfavorable cholera forecast on the global level.
Highlights
Within the last decade increase in cholera morbidity rate in the world has been revealed
Outbreaks and importations of the infection have occurred in 109 countries around Asia, Africa, America, Europe, Australia and Oceania
Nosoarea has been expanding owing to inclusion of new administrative territories and countries into the epidemic process, some cases being registered for the first time during the seventh pandemic
Summary
Э.А.Москвитина, А.Б.Мазрухо, О.Л.Адаменко, О.А.Арешина, А.А.Назаретян, В.Д.Кругликов, С.М.Иванова, Д.А.Козина. ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА ЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЧЕСКОЙ ОБСТАНОВКИ ПО ХОЛЕРЕ В МИРЕ (2003–2012 гг.) И ПРОГНОЗ НА 2013 г. Вспышки и завозы инфекции имели место в 109 странах Азии, Африки, Америки, Европы и Австралии с Океанией. Продолжалось расширение нозоареала за счет вовлечения в эпидемический процесс новых административных территорий и стран, в том числе впервые за период 7-й пандемии. Помимо эндемичных территорий в Индии и Бангладеш, выявлено формирование эндемичных очагов в 12 странах Африки, последовательное во времени и поэтапное в пространстве (по провинциям, округам, штатам, регионам стран) распространение эпидемической холеры, что свидетельствует о продолжении 7-й пандемии. Штаммы V. cholerae О1 Эль Тор, имеющие классический аллель ctx-B, распространяются в глобальном масштабе, что, наряду с вышеизложенным, определяет неблагоприятный прогноз по холере на глобальном уровне. Ключевые слова: холера, эпидемии, эндемичные территории, природные и социальные условия, измененные в геноме варианты V. cholerae O1, прогноз. E.A.Moskvitina, A.B.Mazrukho, O.L.Adamenko, O.A.Areshina, A.A.Nazaretyan, V.D.Kruglikov, S.M.Ivanova, D.A.Kozina
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