Characteristics of Spring Phenological Changes in China over the Past 50 Years

Junhu Dai,Quansheng Ge,Huanjiong Wang

doi:10.1155/2014/843568

Abstract

In order to understand past plant phenological responses to climate change in China (1963–2009), we conducted trends analysis of spring phenophases based on observation data at 33 sites from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON). The phenological data on first leaf date (FLD) and first flowering date (FFD) for five broad-leaved woody plants from 1963 to 2009 were analyzed. Since most phenological time series are discontinuous because of observation interruptions at certain period, we first interpolated phenological time series by using the optimal model between the spring warming (SW) model and the UniChill model to form continuous time series. Subsequently, by using regression analysis, we found that the spring phenophases of woody plants in China advanced at a mean rate of 0.18 days/year over the past 50 years. Changes of spring phenophases exhibited strong regional difference. The linear trends in spring phenophases were −0.18, −0.28, −0.21, −0.04, and −0.14 days/year for the Northeast China Plain, the North China Plain, the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and South China, respectively. The spatial differences in phenological trends can be attributed to regional climate change patterns in China.

Highlights

Plant phenology, which is the study of seasonal plant development events and their relationship to environmental factors [1], has attracted much attention in the context of climate change [2, 3]
In order to minimize the uncertainty of the interpolation as far as possible, we only retained the time series with models uncertainties less than 7 days
92 of 118 time series were chosen for further analysis

Summary

Introduction

Plant phenology, which is the study of seasonal plant development events and their relationship to environmental factors [1], has attracted much attention in the context of climate change [2, 3]. Plant phenophases can be directly affected by the interannual variations of climate factors, such as temperature, light, and moisture [4]. Phenology can in turn affect climate [5, 6]. A longer presence of green cover in large areas should alter physical processes such as albedo, latent and sensible heat, and turbulence [5]. A longer growing season can influence ecosystem productivity and vegetation-atmosphere CO2 exchange [7, 8]. The study of past phenological changes is beneficial for assessing the impacts of climate change [9]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion