Characteristics of Potential Evapotranspiration Changes and Its Climatic Causes in Heilongjiang Province from 1960 to 2019

Abstract

Climate change refers to the statistically significant changes in the mean and dispersion values of meteorological factors. Characterizing potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and its climatic causes will contribute to the estimation of the atmospheric water cycle under climate change. In this study, based on daily meteorological data from 26 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province from 1960 to 2019, ET0 was calculated by the Penman–Monteith formula, linear regression method and the Mann–Kendall trend test were used to reveal the seasonal and inter-annual changing trend of ET0. The sensitivity-contribution rate method was used to clarify the climatic factors affecting ET0. The results showed that: (1) From 1960 to 2019, the maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and average temperature (Tmean) showed an increasing trend, with climate tendency rate of 0.22 °C per decade (10a), 0.49 °C/(10a), 0.36 °C/(10a), respectively. The relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) showed a decreasing trend, with a climate tendency rate of −0.42%/(10a), −0.18 m/s/(10a), −0.08 MJ/m2/(10a), respectively. (2) ET0 showed a decreasing trend on seasonal and inter-annual scales. Inter-annually, the average climate tendency rate of ET0 was −8.69 mm/(10a). seasonally, the lowest climate tendency rate was −6.33 mm/(10a) in spring. (3) ET0 was negatively sensitive to Tmin, and RH, while positively sensitive to Tmax, TmeanU and Rn, its sensitivity coefficient of U was the highest, which was 1.22. (4) The contribution rate of U to ET0 was the highest on an inter-annual scale as well as in spring and autumn, which were −8.96%, −9.79% and −13.14%, respectively, and the highest contribution rate to ET0 were Rn and Tmin in summer and winter, whose contribution rates were −4.37% and −11.46%, respectively. This study provides an understanding on the response of evapotranspiration to climatic change and further provides support on the optimal allocation of regional water resource and agricultural water management under climate change.