Abstract
The factors associated with severity of the bicycle crashes may differ across different bicycle crash patterns. Therefore, it is important to identify distinct bicycle crash patterns with homogeneous attributes. The current study aimed at identifying subgroups of bicycle crashes in Italy and analyzing separately the different bicycle crash types. The present study focused on bicycle crashes that occurred in Italy during the period between 2011 and 2013. We analyzed categorical indicators corresponding to the characteristics of infrastructure (road type, road signage, and location type), road user (i.e., opponent vehicle and cyclist’s maneuver, type of collision, age and gender of the cyclist), vehicle (type of opponent vehicle), and the environmental and time period variables (time of the day, day of the week, season, pavement condition, and weather). To identify homogenous subgroups of bicycle crashes, we used latent class analysis. Using latent class analysis, the bicycle crash data set was segmented into 19 classes, which represents 19 different bicycle crash types. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the association between class membership and severity of the bicycle crashes. Finally, association rules were conducted for each of the latent classes to uncover the factors associated with an increased likelihood of severity. Association rules highlighted different crash characteristics associated with an increased likelihood of severity for each of the 19 bicycle crash types.
Highlights
In Europe, bicycle is the most frequently used mode of transport for 8% of people
According to the data provided by Eurostat, in Italy, in the period 2011–2013, passenger cars make up about 78% of stock of vehicles, followed by powered two-wheelers (PTW), truck (9%), and bus
To determine the most appropriate number of latent classes, we made a comparison between the four different criteria (AIC, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), adjusted BIC (ABIC) and consistent AIC (CAIC))
Summary
In Europe, bicycle is the most frequently used mode of transport for 8% of people. In Italy, 6% of people report that bicycle is the most frequently used mode of transport [1]. Cycling is considered a healthy [2,3,4,5,6] as well as an environmentally friendly mode of transportation [7,8,9]. For these reasons, the promotion of bicycle use has received an increasing interest among policy-makers. There is a growing interest in the literature in understanding the risk factors of bicycle crashes to design and implement the most effective countermeasures to reduce the risk and PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0171484 February 3, 2017
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