Characteristics of annual and seasonal precipitation in North Macedonia: change analysis and correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (1951–2010)

Abstract

Studying the spatiotemporal precipitation characteristics in North Macedonia (1951–2010) is important as no spatially concurrent precipitation changes across the Balkan Peninsula have been identified. North Macedonia lies at the intersection between Mediterranean and continental climate zones and an improved understanding might help to better understand the regional precipitation patterns. The analysis shows a spatially consistent, high inter-annual variability, which makes trend detection difficult. Statistically significant decreasing trends were only found in seasonal precipitation at three stations. Changes in all other precipitation series were non-significant. Trends in winter, spring, and at annual scale are generally decreasing, whereas in summer are increasing. To better understand possible mechanisms behind the observed variability and change, correlations with the North Atlantic Ocsillation (NAO) were assessed. Significant and regionally concurrent correlations were detected. A strong correlation of the previous winter NAO-index with spring precipitation was found, which is valuable information for anticipatory water resources management in the region.