CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF INDICATORS OF EXPORT, IMPORT, AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN LATVIA. WIND POWER CONSUMPTION CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS

Abstract

Energy markets with high penetration rates of renewables are more likely to face price fluctuations or volatility, which is in part due to the stochastic nature of renewables. Latvia's electricity market is an excellent example of such a market, as more than 40% of Latvia's electricity generation comes from hydropower, which challenges the projected spot electricity prices for Latvia's electricity market. The article identifies trends in the natural and value indicators of total exports, imports, total currency turnover and electricity consumption in Latvia with a more detailed study of the characteristics and trends of electricity consumption indicators from renewable resources for the period 2014, 2015 - 2019. In addition, wind power utilization rates were considered both for the observed period as a whole and on a monthly basis for 2019. In general, the results of the study confirm the feasibility of Latvia's plans to increase both total electricity consumption and its share from renewable sources. At the same time, the coronavirus pandemic has already begun to lead to negative consequences for electricity consumption in EU countries, which have so far affected Latvia to a lesser extent. Nevertheless, these consequences will inevitably lead to an adjustment of Latvia's electricity plans towards an increase in the share of production and consumption of electricity from renewable sources, including wind energy, despite its upward price trend. The author with employment of the tools Excel Trendline obtains trends of indicators, approximating formulae dependencies and the coefficients of determination for the relevant diagrams and charts.