Characteristics and prognostic factors of COVID-19 among infected cases: a nationwide Tunisian analysis.

Chahida Harizi,Yosr Ayedi,Hejer Letaief,Donia Gharbi,Ilhem Boutiba Ben Boubaker,Ilhem Bouaziz,Radhouane Fakhfakh,Aicha Hchaichi,Hamida Ben Salah,Mouna Safer,Rym Mallekh,Sondes Derouiche,Molka Osman,Ines Cherif,Oumaima Ben Ayed,Sonia Dhaouadi,Mohamed Kouni Chahed,Souha Bougatef,Nourhene Najar,Salma Abid,Leila Bouabid,Nissaf Bouafif Ép Ben-Alaya

doi:10.1186/s12879-021-05844-y

Abstract

BackgroundThe outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health concern. Few data are available on the duration and prognostic factors of the disease. We aimed to study the recovery time among a Tunisian cohort of COVID-19 confirmed patients and identify the prognostic factors.MethodsA retrospective, nationwide study was conducted from March 2 to May 8, 2020, recruiting all patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19, by RT-PCR methods, in Tunisia. Data were collected via phone call interview. Kaplan-Meir Methods and Cox proportional hazards regression models were, respectively, used to study the recovery time and estimate its prognostic factors.ResultsOne thousand and thirty patients with COVID-19 (aged 43.2 ± 18.2 years, 526 female (51.1%)) were enrolled. Among them 141 (14.8%) were healthcare professionals. Out of 173 patients (17.8%) admitted to the hospital, 47 were admitted in an intensive care unit. Among 827 patients who didn’t require specialized care, 55.5% were self-isolated at home, while the rest were in specialized centers. Six hundred and two patients were symptomatic. A total of 634 (61.6%) patients have recovered and 45 (4.4%) patients died. The median duration of illness was estimated to be 31 days (95% CI: [29–32]). Older age (HR = 0.66, CI:[0.46–0.96], P = 0.031) and symptoms (HR = 0.61, CI:[0.43–0.81], P = 0.021) were independently associated with a delay in recovery time. Being a healthcare professional (HR = 1.52, CI: [1.10–2.08], P = 0.011) and patients in home isolation compared to isolation centers (HR = 2.99, CI: [1.85–4.83], P < 10¯3) were independently associated with faster recovery time.ConclusionThe duration of illness was estimated to be 1 month. However, this long estimated duration of illness may not equate to infectiousness. A particular attention must to be paid to elderly and symptomatic patients with closer monitoring.

Highlights

The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health concern
Clinical profile of patients A total of 1030 patients tested positive for COVID 19 disease were collected between March 2 and May 8, 2020
Patients who did not require care have been self-isolated at home (55.5%) or in dedicated centers for positive cases (44.5%)

Summary

Introduction

The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health concern. On 30 January 2020, the World health organization considered COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern and announced the pandemic threat in March 11,2020 [1, 2]. On May 15, 2020, 4,553,394 confirmed cases of covid-19 were identified, worldwide, with death rate of 6.7 and 37.7% of recovery [3]. Several measures have been taken to break the spread of the epidemic among the population These steps include the successive screening at point of entry, 14 days isolation of travelers returning from risk areas, closure of school and university facilities, ban of sports and cultural events, borders closure, curfew and a national lockdown was announced on March 22, 2020 [4]. On May 8, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 1030 [5]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion