Characteristics and Influence Factors of Water Consumption in China Pro-vincial Capital Cities by Means of Multivariate Regression Algorithm

Jinjun Zhou,Hao Wang,Zhongjing Wang,Weiwei Shao,Jiahong Liu

doi:10.1051/matecconf/201824602005

Abstract

The city is a typical natural and social dual water circulation area. The water use characteristics of the city have obvious dual attributes, and there are many factors (both on nature and social side) affecting the urban water consumption (UWC). This article aimed to research the structure and characteristics of the UWC. Taking the provincial capital cities of China as the research objects, 24 index factors and data of the year 2015 were selected to construct a multivariate regression model between urban UWC and index factors. The results showed that the combination of correlation analysis and full subset regression could effectively screen the prediction variables of UWC. Principal component analysis could effectively reduce variable dimensions of UWC while preserving raw dataset information as much as possible. The main factors affecting UWC on the social side include the built-up area, the urban population, road cleaning area, residential electricity consumption, and per capital water consumption, and the main factors of the natural side include per capital green land and precipitation.

Highlights

The urban hydrological cycle process becomes more complicated under the influence of climate change and urbanization [1]
The growth of urban population promotes the increase of the total amount and intensity of Urban water consumption (UWC), while the water price controls the amount and intensity of UWC [7]
Correlation analysis can screen the indicators with high correlation among UWC variables, all-subsets regression can select UWC variables under the optimal model, and the combination of two methods can effectively select variables, reduce the dimension of predictive variables, and promote multiple regression fitting effect

Summary

Introduction

The urban hydrological cycle process becomes more complicated under the influence of climate change and urbanization [1]. Urban water consumption (UWC) is an important part of urban hydrological process, which determines the process change and flux of urban hydrological cycle [2]. Due to the interference of strong human activities, the process of UWC becomes more complicated [5]. It is disturbed by human activities, and affected by natural factors such as hydrology and meteorology [6]. Water consumption per capital per day is highly influenced by meteorological factors, socioeconomic status, water supply and conservation factors [8]. From a technical point of view, water supply facilities, water use efficiency and reuse rate have a great impact on urban water use [9]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion