Characteristics and dynamics of illegal firearms markets: Implications for a supply-side enforcement strategy*

Abstract

The question of whether the illegal firearms market serving criminals and juveniles can be disrupted has been vigorously debated. Recent research suggests that illegal gun markets consist of both “point sources” (ongoing diversions through scofflaw dealers and trafficking rings) and “diffuse sources” (acquisitions through theft and informal, voluntary sales). To the extent that systematic gun trafficking is an important source of weapons for criminals and youth, focused regulatory and investigative resources may be effective in disrupting the illegal flow. In this research, we use data on traced firearms to examine one aspect of the illegal gun market that holds the most immediate promise for focused supply-side enforcement efforts—close-to-retail diversions. We find that almost one-third of traceable crime guns were recently diverted from legitimate retail firearms commerce and that nearly one-third had two or more indicators of gun trafficking involving dealers, purchasers, and possessors. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding illegal gun markets and for developing effective supply-side enforcement strategies.