Characteristics and dynamics analysis of Populus euphratica populations in the middle reaches of Tarim River

Abstract

Populus euphratica Oliv. is widely distributed along the Tarim River. Maintaining stability of P. euphratica population is important to local development. This study explored the static life table, survivorship curves and four function curves (survival rate, cumulative mortality rate, mortality density, and hazard rate), and development index of P. euphratica population in the middle reaches of Tarim River. The results indicated that the age structure of P. euphratica population belonged to positive pyramidal type, which meant young age-class individuals occupied most populations. The number ofⅠ-Ⅱage classes accounted for 66.2% of whole population, and this indicated that there were abundant subsequent seedlings resources to support the growth of P. euphratica population in the middle reaches of Tarim River. The survivorship curve of P. euphratica belonged to the Deevey Ⅲ (concave-type) and the development index was 47.72%. Four function curves revealed that the individuals of P. euphratica sharply decreased at the initial stage and then leveled off at the late stage of survival curve. Time sequence prediction models predicted that the number of midlife individuals would increase in future 10, 20, 30 years, and P. euphratica population grew steadily as a result of rich saplings.