Abstract
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change is manifested by the increase in average surface atmospheric temperatures and a decrease in rainfall. The impacts are multiple, complex and differentiated from one region to another in the world. In the Guelmim region (southern Morocco), climate change is manifested by severe droughts and/or recurrent floods. The objective of this study is to characterize the recent and future climate variability in the Guelmim region based on time series of precipitation, the study period goes from 1985 to 2017, and from 2020 to 2099 using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).Results of SPI analysis indicate that the most notable droughts for their varying intensity, duration and frequency occurred during the 1992-94 and 1997-2000 periods. Future analysis indicates the study area will face several extended periods of drought and wet during 2020 to 2099. The results of this study show also the link between North Atlantic Oscillation and winter precipitation in Guelmim, which are associated with the negative phase of NAO. The purpose of the study is to have a good management of crops and water resources in Guelmim region and either to insure a sustainable management of environment.
Highlights
Some unexpectd impacts of climate change are beginning to become apparent at the regional level everywhere in the world
The aim of this study is to characterize the variability of the climate of Guelmim, region which is located in southern Morocco ; and to study the evolution of recent and future climate through precipitation; as well as quantifying aridity by measuring the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
The monthly SPI_1mois (Figure 8) reflects short-term conditions; it is the meteorological drought; the years were the flooding occur in the region (1985 and 2014) has a maximum of SPI (3.0)
Summary
Some unexpectd impacts of climate change are beginning to become apparent at the regional level everywhere in the world. Over the past two centuries, the number of devastating floods is growing faster than other disasters [1]. Morocco is not immune to these considerations. Recurrent droughts have prevailed for several years, from time to time by sudden and destructive thunderstorms causing devastating floods, which led to an early awareness of the danger posed by climate disturbances. Morocco recorded no less than 35 episodes floods between 1951 and 2015. Flash floods are capable of turning the dry beds of the “Oueds” into violent and destructive torrents [3]. Over the past 45 years, the major floods in the Guelmim’s region have occurred in 1968, 1985, 2010 and 2014; These floods caused considerable damage [4]
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