Character First: Rethinking John McCain's 2008 Campaign Strategy

Abstract

Barack Obama's defeat of John McCain in 2008 was hardly surprising given the campaign’s context, which was toxic for the Republican Party. Yet, in such perilous times, McCain enjoyed certain advantages, namely his reputation for strong leadership and his years of government experi-ence that could have been profitably contrasted with Obama's relative youth and inexperience. Given these advantages, we speculate as to whether McCain could have pulled even with Obama in the popular vote by increasing his lead among persuadable voters on their perceptions of the candidates’ character traits. Using ANES data on traits from 1988 to 2008, we conclude that, short of profound missteps by the Obama campaign, McCain would have had to accomplish more than simply shifting voter perceptions of character traits in a more favorable direction to win the election.