Chapter II. The World Economy

Abstract

The growth of production in the industrial countries seems to have been less rapid in the second quarter. It must be expected to slow down further under the impact of the measures taken in the United States to reduce the budgetary deficit. We still expect the rise in the combined national outputs of the industrial countries to be around 4½ per cent this year, but on present policies it may be no more than 3½ per cent in 1969 and a good deal less than this in the twelve months to mid-1969. Unemployment is still high by the standards of most recent years; its downward movement appears to have been checked again or even reversed in a number of European countries and its general tendency over the next twelve months is likely to be upward, particularly in the United States.