Chapter 8 - Technological Foresight of the Bioethanol Case

Abstract

This chapter presents an integrated cluster of methodological approaches to identify biofuels innovation scenarios, as a technological foresight exercise. In this context, it presents an analysis on scientific publications, technical data, and patents networks, regarding biofuels Research and Development (R&D) global efforts, with special emphasis on bioethanol industrial processes. These procedures involve the design and application of two groups of foresight tools: (1) the scientific and technological production and networks of scientific collaboration, using scientometrics and bibliometrics approaches for “second-generation bioethanol R&D global efforts”; (2) the building of networks of forward patent citations as proxies of innovation potential, concerning biomass raw material industrial processes for “ethanol or bioethanol.”Two main conclusions can be driven from the study. The scientific research is progressing, irrespective of the change of expectations regarding the feasibility of second-generation ethanol and the development of the third-generation derivatives (like oils for cosmetics). It is concentrated in few countries, mostly those already interested in producing biofuels, generating subnetworks of collaboration (triads) as almost closed subsystems. However, there is space for countries out of the biofuel market, with knowledge in specialized fields, particularly in enabling technologies, as South Korea. Technological trajectories, based on the network of patents, for the other side, are not mature, reflecting the existence of many feasible alternatives and the challenge the competition of traditional means of producing biofuels and the presence of other scientific and technological paradigms, based on petrochemicals or even out of the use of light fuels, as electric cars.