Chapter 8 - Land-use modelling by CLUMondo under contrasting scenarios: a case study in the Yanhe watershed (China)

Abstract

The global land-use change is a cause of environmental change. The detections of the change trajectories and scenarios contribute to understanding their impacts on ecosystem services and human wellbeing. China’s large-scale ecological restoration projects changed importantly land use and cover in the implemented regions, influencing regional climate change. Grain for Green project on the Loess Plateau substantially increased vegetation cover and reduced agricultural land use. Taking Yanhe watershed (Shannxi Province of the Loess Plateau in China) as a case study, we analysed the land-use change dynamics from 2000 to 2018 and modelled three different scenarios referring to 2028: (1) business as usual; (2) economic development and (3) ecological conservation using CLUMondo model. The maps of suitability layers were first calibrated with the actual change from 2000 to 2008 and then were validated by Kappa values (0.87 and 0.75, respectively). This chapter contributes to a better understanding of land-use change’s potential effects on ecosystem process and function, and supports watershed-scale land-use planning and management.