Abstract
This chapter focuses on the subject of probability. Associated with every event is a number between 0 and 1 and its probability, which expresses how likely it is that the event will happen each time the random experiment is run. If a random experiment is run many times, the relative frequency of an event is the proportion of times the event occurs out of the number of times the experiment is run. The law of large numbers says that the relative frequency (a random number) will be close to the probability (an exact, fixed number) if the experiment is run many times. Thus, a relative frequency based on past data may be used as an approximation to a probability value. A theoretical probability is computed using an exact formula based on a mathematical theory or model such as the equally likely rule. This chapter explains how uncertainty can be analyzed. The concepts of random experiment, random situation, the sample space, relative frequency, the law of large numbers, theoretical probability, and the equally likely rule subjective probability are explained along with conditional probabilities for mutually exclusive events, intersection rule for independent events, and the relationship between independent and mutually exclusive events.
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