Chapter 6 - Implications of future growth in demand for agricultural commodities and climate change on land and water use and water productivity

Abstract

Abstract This chapter reviews the situation in different regions of the world with regard to the future possibilities for raising crop yields, expanding arable land, increasing irrigation potential or intensifying cropping, and improving water productivity for meeting agricultural growth challenges. It also presents the scenarios of future growth in demand for agricultural commodities in different regions of the world due to projected increase in calorie intake and population growth, and supply of agricultural commodities owing to the projected increase in crop yields, expansion of arable land, increase in irrigated area and climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, based on a review of available studies on global institutions. Implications of these changes for agricultural water productivity in different regions are drawn. Scenarios of agricultural output growth for the least developed countries of Africa are developed by considering the constraints induced by insufficient institutional capabilities in the water sector of these countries, their limited capacity for resource mobilization, cultural barriers, and the past experience with agricultural development through irrigation, etc., along with the opportunities provided by vast untapped water resources and large amounts of arable land.