Chapter 4 - Assessment and prediction of human reliability

Abstract

This chapter presents an assessment and prediction of human reliability. The study of reliability is concerned with reducing the likelihood of errors by predicting what could go wrong when the human interacts with a work system. This is achieved by applying systematically the principles of psychology, ergonomics, and organizational design, together with a basic understanding of the operation of the work system. The essence of the discipline is the prediction and mitigation of error with the objective of optimizing safety, reliability, and productivity. Human reliability techniques have traditionally been applied in high-technology systems areas such as aerospace, nuclear power, and the offshore oil and chemical processing industries where human error can compromise production or safety. The study of human reliability can broadly be subdivided into two main streams: (1) the qualitative aspect, which deals with defining what sort of human errors will occur and how to mitigate them; and (2) the quantitative aspect, which is the prediction of the probability of error occurrence. The study of human reliability can be seen as a dynamic field that is expanding from its origins in large hazardous systems to a wide variety of new applications.