Chapter 12 Climate services at the Japan meteorological agency using a general circulation model: Dynamical one-month prediction

Abstract

Many national meteorological centers/agencies are using or are considering using dynamical models in the climate services not only for data assimilation of climate systems, but also for short-term climate predictions up to an interannual time scale ahead. Interactions of atmosphere with the underlying surface, having a longer relaxation time than the atmosphere, and predictability of surface variability are the scientific bases for short-term climate predictions. This chapter introduces Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA's) dynamical 1-month prediction services and provides information about the current skill and explores the applicability of JMA's atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM). Experience obtained through such operational services is useful for the improvement of AGCMs as operational weather forecast has been. At the JMA, both the experimental prediction of El Nino phenomena with a coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation model (CGCM) and a predictability study of 3-month predictions with an AGCM are continuing and showing promising results. To improve 1-month forecast services, it is important to improve methods of extracting useful information from the model products.