Chapter 12 - Assessment of the Threat

Abstract

The term “threat assessment” is interpreted as evaluation of impending danger or harm by a person, group, circumstance, or set of conditions. Biological weapons in the possession of hostile states or terrorists pose unique and serious threats to the safety and security of the United States. An attack with a biological agent could mimic naturally occurring disease, potentially delaying recognition of an attack and creating uncertainty about whether an intentional event has even occurred. Advances in biotechnology and life sciences present the prospect of new biological elements that would require new detection methods, preventive measures, and treatments. These developments increase the risk for surprise and make predicting future weapon threats more challenging. Anticipating such threats through intelligence efforts is made more difficult by the dual-use nature of biological technologies and infrastructure and the likelihood that adversaries will use denial and deception to conceal their illicit activities. The ability to conduct appropriate biothreat assessment of whether to provide guidance to policy makers at the national level or to initiate an immediate local public health or law enforcement response has been recognized as one of the essential elements. Enhancement of threat assessment capabilities remains a priority, as evidenced by the NSC’s National Strategy for Countering Biological Threats. One of the objectives of the strategy is to “obtain timely and accurate insight on current and emerging risks” by improving relevant agencies’ threat identification, notification, and assessment capabilities. Advancements in microbial forensics will serve to enhance threat awareness and assessment capabilities of all agencies involved in this essential element of national biodefense.