Chapter 12. A Wildfire and Emissions Policy Model for the Boise National Forest

Abstract

Summary We utilized the Boise National Forest's Hazard/Risk model, along with fire history records and fire behavior models, to estimate the current and anticipated levels of large wildfires and associated greenhouse gas and particulate emissions based on the forest condition and wildfire regime on the BNF. The model indicated that the forests at greatest risk of large, intense wildfires are the dense pondero-sa pine-Douglas-fir forests that make up over 1.1 million acres on the forest. We conclude that without an aggressive treatment program to reduce large areas of contiguous heavy fuel loadings the forest will be burned at an annual average rate of about 7.5% of the remaining at-risk forest. Using recent fire data to develop average patterns of intensity in wildfires within this forest type, we estimate that emissions will average around 1 million tons of carbon (C) per year over the next 20 years as the bulk of the ponderosa pine forests are burned. An aggressive treatment program featuring the removal of fuels where necessary, and prescribed fire as a means of re-introducing fire to these ecosystems, would result in a 30-50 percent reduction in the average annual wildfire experienced in the dense ponderosa pine forests, a 14-35% decrease in the average annual C emissions, and a 10-31% decrease in particulate emissions. We argue that the most effective way to curb emissions is with an aggressive treatment program linked to a landscape-based ecosystem management plan. This would have the effect of breaking up large contiguous landscape patterns so that fires become more patchy and diverse in their environmental impact, resulting in significantly reduced emissions as well as improved landscape diversity.