Chapter 1 - Overview of uncertainties in modern power systems: uncertainty models and methods

Abstract

Currently, uncertainty in energy systems is an ongoing issue, particularly in modern renewable energy systems, where it is difficult to accurately describe current or future states of parameters in power systems because of the many uncertainty issues that could expose the systems to potential issues. This is why identifying uncertainties is not a simple task or a straightforward issue. Nowadays, there are different strategies to model these uncertainties. Each has its strengths and limitations. Hence, much attention should be paid to managing uncertainty in energy systems and mitigating their potential risks both at the planning and operational stage. Although predicting uncertainty at the planning stage can deviate from the real situation, it can always be liberated at the operational stage. In this chapter, models of the uncertainty of parameters in modern power systems such as uncertainty models of load demand, wind energy, photovoltaic energy, plug-in electric vehicles, electricity price, and load growth are summarized to bring together several aspects of uncertainty management in power systems in planning and operation stages within an integrated framework. Then, uncertainty modeling methods are presented in detail. Finally, the related future trends are explored.