Chapter 1 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology Flood Forecasting and Warning

Abstract

The Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau) has a long history of providing effective flood warnings to diverse communities in Australia, ranging from major metropolitan centers to remote communities with limited communication access. In addition to statistical models relating upstream peak river heights to downstream river heights, the main rainfall-runoff modeling tool for hydrologists is the event-based Unified River Basin Simulator (URBS) model. With the recent adoption of Deltares’ Flood Early Warning System as a forecasting environment, hydrologists now have increased ability to directly ingest numerical weather prediction model rainfall forecasts. The main public products of the system are text flood warnings and watches based on predetermined flood class levels (eg, minor, moderate, and major flood). Australia’s extreme variability in population density affects critical inputs to flood forecasting, such as the density of gauging stations, as well as the demand for services. The variable demand for services has led Australia to adopt a mix of regional and national forecasting centers. During periods of high activity in any given region, hydrologists from a “flying squad” can provide fly-in or remote support to regional forecasters.