Changing trends in hip fracture epidemiology in the Republic of Ireland: a follow-up study.

Abstract

Accurate estimates of hip fracture numbers and incidence rates are necessary for health service resource planning. A study in 2009 estimated projected figures for 2016 and 2026, for the Republic of Ireland. The purpose of the current study was to scrutinize these projections, based upon actual population and fracture statistics for the year 2016. Population data was obtained from the Central Statistics Office, and hip fracture data was obtained from the National HIPE Database for the year 2016, using similar search criteria to the previously published study. Hip fracture numbers and incidence rates were calculated. The calculated figures were compared to projected figures from the previous report. Population projection models used in the 2009 paper accurately reflected the 2016 Irish population. For younger age groups, projected number of fractures closely estimated actual numbers, however, for those over 70years of age, hip fracture projections overestimated the actual fracture numbers observed. There was a significant difference in the age-specific hip fracture rates in the over 70s sub-groups compared to the published results of the 2009 study. Hip fracture numbers continue to increase, though the age-specific incidence rates in the Republic of Ireland are reducing in the older age groups. The previously published study over-estimated hip fracture projections for the year 2016 (and potentially 2026) due to a false assumption of a stable age-specific incidence rate in the Republic of Ireland, which is in fact reducing.