Changing social contracts in climate-change adaptation

Abstract

A survey conducted in England and Ireland after a major flooding event shows that perceptions of individual responsibility for protection depend on the specific social and policy context. Perception of future risk, in the case of people directly affected by the flooding, also depends on the context. Expectations about the state’s responsibility for climate protection are critical in promoting longer-term adaptation to the changing climate. Risks from extreme weather events are mediated through state, civil society and individual action1,2. We propose evolving social contracts as a primary mechanism by which adaptation to climate change proceeds. We use a natural experiment of policy and social contexts of the UK and Ireland affected by the same meteorological event and resultant flooding in November 2009. We analyse data from policy documents and from household surveys of 356 residents in western Ireland and northwest England. We find significant differences between perceptions of individual responsibility for protection across the jurisdictions and between perceptions of future risk from populations directly affected by flooding events. These explain differences in stated willingness to take individual adaptive actions when state support retrenches. We therefore show that expectations for state protection are critical in mediating impacts and promoting longer-term adaptation. We argue that making social contracts explicit may smooth pathways to effective and legitimate adaptation.