Abstract
We assessed spatial and temporal changes in the occurrence of human anthrax in Azerbaijan during 1984 through 2010. Data on livestock outbreaks, vaccination efforts, and human anthrax incidence during Soviet governance, post-Soviet governance, preemptive livestock vaccination were analyzed. To evaluate changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of anthrax, we used a combination of spatial analysis, cluster detection, and weighted least squares segmented regression. Results indicated an annual percent change in incidence of +11.95% from 1984 to 1995 followed by declining rate of −35.24% after the initiation of livestock vaccination in 1996. Our findings also revealed geographic variation in the spatial distribution of reporting; cases were primarily concentrated in the west early in the study period and shifted eastward as time progressed. Over twenty years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the distribution of human anthrax in Azerbaijan has undergone marked changes. Despite decreases in the incidence of human anthrax, continued control measures in livestock are needed to mitigate its occurrence. The shifting patterns of human anthrax highlight the need for an integrated “One Health” approach that takes into account the changing geographic distribution of the disease.
Highlights
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought about profound alterations to disease management [1,2,3]
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resources for disease management in Azerbaijan were dramatically diminished leading to increases in zoonotic diseases
Our findings provide evidence of a changing incidence and a shift in the geographic patterns of human anthrax
Summary
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought about profound alterations to disease management [1,2,3]. Once part of the largest public health system in the world, newly independent states (NIS) were suddenly faced with steep cuts in funding for disease surveillance and control [4]. The impacts of the deteriorating public health infrastructure were evident almost immediately as vaccine preventable diseases such as diphtheria increased dramatically [5,6]. There were reports of an increased incidence of zoonotic diseases (transferable from animals to humans), such as anthrax, in the former Soviet Union (FSU) [7,8,9]. More than twenty years have passed since Soviet independence, the status of anthrax in humans and livestock remains a concern across much of the FSU [8,10,11]
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