Abstract
The geographic ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing due to global and local environmental (including climatic) changes. In this review we explore current knowledge of the drivers for changes in the ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogen species and strains via effects on their basic reproduction number (R0), and the mechanisms of dispersal that allow ticks and tick-borne pathogens to invade suitable environments. Using the expanding geographic distribution of the vectors and agent of Lyme disease as an example we then investigate what could be expected of the diversity of tick-borne pathogens during the process of range expansion, and compare this with what is currently being observed. Lastly we explore how historic population and range expansions and contractions could be reflected in the phylogeography of ticks and tick-borne pathogens seen in recent years, and conclude that combined study of currently changing tick and tick-borne pathogen ranges and diversity, with phylogeographic analysis, may help us better predict future patterns of invasion and diversity.
Highlights
Change in geographic range is one process whereby infectious diseases emerge or re-emerge (Kilpatrick and Randolph, 2012)
We investigate two epidemiological/ecological processes involved in range change: (i) the factors involved in the maintenance of tick-borne pathogen transmission cycles that may or may not permit expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogen populations, and may or may not permit them to become endemic once they arrive in new locations; and (ii) the mechanisms whereby ticks and tick-borne pathogens are dispersed from locations where they are endemic allowing invasion of new, ecologically-suitable locations
We review possible expected consequences of these processes for the diversity of tick-borne pathogens, and how we would expect them to be reflected in the phylogeography of ticks and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.: the agent of Lyme disease, called Lyme borreliosis)
Summary
Changing geographic ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: drivers, mechanisms and consequences for pathogen diversity. In this review we explore current knowledge of the drivers for changes in the ranges of ticks and tick-borne pathogen species and strains via effects on their basic reproduction number (R0), and the mechanisms of dispersal that allow ticks and tick-borne pathogens to invade suitable environments. Using the expanding geographic distribution of the vectors and agent of Lyme disease as an example we investigate what could be expected of the diversity of tick-borne pathogens during the process of range expansion, and compare this with what is currently being observed. We explore how historic population and range expansions and contractions could be reflected in the phylogeography of ticks and tick-borne pathogens seen in recent years, and conclude that combined study of currently changing tick and tick-borne pathogen ranges and diversity, with phylogeographic analysis, may help us better predict future patterns of invasion and diversity
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