Abstract
BackgroundChina has made substantial progress in tackling its HIV and AIDS epidemic. But the changing patterns of HIV and AIDS incidence based on the longitudinal observation data were rarely studied.MethodsThe reporting incidence (RI) and mortality data on HIV and AIDS in China covering 31 provinces from 2004 to 2014 were collected from the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center. To decompose the time-series data, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was applied to properly describe the trends of HIV and AIDS incidence. A mathematical model was used to estimate the relative change of incidence among provinces and age groups.ResultsA total of 483,010 newly HIV infections and 214,205 AIDS cases were reported between 2004 and 2014 nationwide. HIV infection increased from 13,258 in 2004 (RI 1.02 per 100,000 person years) to 74,048 in 2014 (RI 5.46 per 100,000). The number of AIDS cases increased from 3054 in 2004 (RI 0.23 per 100,000) to 45,145 in 2014 (RI 3.33 per 100,000). The overall relative changes for HIV infection and AIDS incidence were 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10–1.13) and 1.28 (95% CI 1.23–1.33), respectively. The relative increase for HIV and AIDS RI was higher in northwest provinces while lower in Henan, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan. The overall relative changes for HIV infection were 1.12 (95% CI 1.11–1.14) in males and 1.10 (95% CI 1.06–1.13) in females. For AIDS RI, the relative increases were 1.31 (95% CI 1.26–1.36) in males and 1.22 (95% CI 1.17–1.28) in females. The lowest relative increase was detected among young adults, while the largest relative increase (odds ratio [OR] > 1.30) was detected in people aged 55 years or above.ConclusionsHIV and AIDS showed an increasing trend in China from 2004 to 2014, respectively, but the epidemic tended to be under control among provinces and young people that used to have a high HIV and AIDS incidence. Northwest China and older people could be new “hop-spots” for HIV and AIDS risk.
Highlights
China has made substantial progress in tackling its Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic
The overall relative changes in incidence measured by odds ratio (OR) were 1.11 for HIV and 1.28 for AIDS, respectively
The increase for HIV infection incidence was in a linear fashion
Summary
China has made substantial progress in tackling its HIV and AIDS epidemic. In 2014, more than half a million people living with HIV and 0.2 million AIDS cases were reported, and there were more than 0.1 million new HIV infections [3]. Since the first AIDS case was reported in early 1980’s, China had initiated a set of measures to combat this emerging health problem. In 1995, the China Ministry of Health and the National Center for AIDS established 42 national sentinel sites in 23 of the 31 provinces [4]. The system had issues related to its accessibility and accuracy, which hampered timely understanding of the HIV and AIDS epidemic pattern and effectiveness of HIV and AIDS prevention measures
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