Abstract
Purpose of ReviewWhat does recent work say about how changes in convective organization could lead to changes in extreme precipitation?Recent FindingsChanging convective organization is one mechanism that could explain variation in extreme precipitation increase through dynamics. In models, the effects of convective self-aggregation on extreme precipitation are sensitive to parameterization, among other factors. In both models and observations, whether or not convective organization influences extreme precipitation is sensitive to the time and space scales analyzed, affecting extreme precipitation on some scales but not others. While trends in observations in convective organization associated with mean precipitation have been identified, it has not yet been established whether these trends are robust or relevant for events associated with extreme precipitation.SummaryRecent work has documented a somewhat view of how changes in convective organization could affect extreme precipitation with warming, and it remains unclear whether or not they do.
Highlights
Extreme precipitation events are often associated with organized convection [1, 2], but theory for how extreme precipitation responds to global warming is based largely on arguments assuming circulation associated with extreme events does not change with warming [3, 4]
Increase of extreme precipitation with increasing convective organization has been identified in models, on some temporal and spatial scales, lending support to the potential relevance of the mechanism
We have learned that in observations, as in models, there is some evidence that aspects of extreme precipitation depend on convective organization
Summary
Extreme precipitation events are often associated with organized convection [1, 2], but theory for how extreme precipitation responds to global warming is based largely on arguments assuming circulation associated with extreme events does not change with warming [3, 4]. In climate model simulations, changes in convective organization can drive changes in extreme precipitation dynamically, by altering the circulation associated with extreme events Though these studies have all used simulations that were idealized to varying degrees, they are potentially relevant to Earth’s tropics. CAM is one conventional climate model atmosphere component that has a moderately large dynamic increase of tropical extreme daily precipitation in response to warming [29]; replacing its convective parameterization with superparameterization changes its extreme precipitation response [30]. Multiple studies using different models and observational datasets agree that extreme precipitation differs between fine and coarse scales in space or time They agree that does the behavior of extremes depend how rare an event is (i.e., what percentile of the distribution it represents), and the temporal and spatial scale considered. In addition to extreme precipitation changes in convective organization have even been discussed as potentially affecting mean precipitation and climate sensitivity [53]
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