Changing climate requires shift from refugia to sanctuaries for floodplain forests

Sabine Fink,Christoph Scheidegger

doi:10.1007/s10980-021-01224-8

Sabine Fink, Christoph Scheidegger

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01224-8

Copy DOI

Abstract

ContextRiparian areas are considered to undergo major alterations under changing climate, making floodplain habitats targets for conservation and landscape planning. Protected areas might provide sanctuaries especially for sessile riparian plant species, but these niches are not always persistent over time.ObjectivesWe investigate if plant species of floodplain forests are provided with suitable habitat within currently protected areas and if these refugia persist. A coupled-modelling approach is used to gain spatially explicit information on new areas for sanctuaries.MethodsWe use species distribution models to predict the niche of 12 Salicion albae and 7 Fraxinion floodplain forest species along rivers in Switzerland, under current, moderate and extreme climate change scenarios up to 80 years to the future (2100). The spread of plant species from current habitat to suitable future habitat is simulated using dispersal vectors and life history traits.ResultsSalicion albae species are more flexible under both climate change scenarios than Fraxinion species. The main limitation for the spread of species is their dispersal ability, as only a minority of the suitable cells is colonized during the simulation process. The predicted future presence within currently protected areas decreases under both climate change scenarios in the model.ConclusionsCurrent protected floodplains do not provide persistent refugia for the plants studied, but might still be of importance to other organisms. Planning of sanctuaries for riparian plant species and communities need to focus on connectivity along rivers to maintain viable source populations in dynamic riverine landscapes under changing climate.

Highlights

Over the last decade, the loss of wetlands including riverine floodplains was more rapid than any other ecosystem (United Nations 2018), these ecosystems provide important services (Costanza et al 1997), show higher species diversity than surrounding uplands (Brown and Peet 2003) and harbor distinct plant communities (Sabo et al 2005)
Changing future climatic conditions directly affect habitats close to the waterline, like floodplain forests of the plant community Salicion albae, which might result in modified plant communities due to e.g. longer drought periods followed by extreme floods (Ikeda et al 2014; Chen et al 2018)
This study aims at determining if plant species of floodplain forests find sanctuaries in protected areas and if these persist as refugia under both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios

Summary

Introduction

The loss of wetlands including riverine floodplains was more rapid than any other ecosystem (United Nations 2018), these ecosystems provide important services (Costanza et al 1997), show higher species diversity than surrounding uplands (Brown and Peet 2003) and harbor distinct plant communities (Sabo et al 2005). The local persistence of dynamic habitats is expected to be reduced (Vittoz et al 2013), which is especially disastrous for habitats which need several decades to establish, like floodplain forests of the plant community Fraxinion (Ellenberg 2010; Werth et al 2012; Delarze and Gonseth 2015) These species rich plant communities (Ellenberg 2010; Delarze and Gonseth 2015) are crucial for the survival and spread of other organisms (Schnitzler-Lenoble and Carbiener 2007; Machar et al 2019). Changing future climatic conditions directly affect habitats close to the waterline, like floodplain forests of the plant community Salicion albae, which might result in modified plant communities due to e.g. longer drought periods followed by extreme floods (Ikeda et al 2014; Chen et al 2018)

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion