Abstract
The longitudinal comparison of census data in spatial format is often problematic because of changes in administrative boundaries. Such shifting boundaries are referred to as the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). This article utilises unemployment data between 1991 and 2007 in South Africa to illustrate the challenge and proposes ways to overcome it. Various censuses in South Africa use different reporting geographies. Unemployment data for magisterial districts of census 1991 and 1996 were re-modelled to the 2005 municipal boundaries. This article showed that areal interpolation to a common administrative boundary could overcome these reporting obstacles. The results confirmed more accurate interpolations in rural areas with standard errors below 3300. Conversely, the largest errors were recorded in the metropolitan areas. Huge increases in unemployment between 1996 and 2001 statistics were also evident, especially in the metropolitan areas. Although such areas are more complex in nature, making it more difficult to accurately calculate census data, the increase in unemployment could also be the result of census taking methods. The article concludes that socio-economic data should be available at the smallest possible geographic area to ensure more accurate results in interpolation. It also recommends that new output areas be conceptualised to create a seamless database of census data from 1991 to 2011 in South Africa.
Highlights
One of the main interests of census and population researchers is the study of socio-economic change.[1]
Huge increases in unemployment between 1996 and 2001 statistics were evident, especially in the metropolitan areas. Such areas are more complex in nature, making it more difficult to accurately calculate census data, the increase in unemployment could be the result of census taking methods
Results from the 1991 areal interpolation show that 8 of the 13 points were within the 90% confidence level so the model is acceptable
Summary
One of the main interests of census and population researchers is the study of socio-economic change.[1] The study of change is especially important to answer questions at a local scale, for example, a suburb or municipality. Such comparisons over time are difficult because census collection methods and definitions as well as reporting geographies change. The problem of shifting boundaries is referred to as the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). There is limited literature available on overcoming the MAUP in South Africa using socio-economic data. There are some attempts to build historical Geographic Information System socioeconomic data sets in South Africa, their methodologies are not yet documented in the literature.[2]
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