Changes of residence in times of COVID-19: a small respite from rural depopulation

Miguel Gónzalez Leonardo,Francisco Rowe,Joaquín Recaño Valverde,Antonio López-Gay

doi:10.46710/ced.pd.eng.26

Abstract

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several commentators, especially from non-academic fields, speculated about a potential exodus from urban to rural areas. However, this hypothesis has not been confirmed due to a lack of data with information capturing changes of residence at local level. This issue of Perspectives Demogràfiques offers the main results of a study led by the Centre for Demographic Studies and the Autonomous University of Barcelona which analyses internal migration between cities, suburbs, and rural areas in 2020, compared to migration patterns during the four years preceding the pandemic. The analysis used microdata from the Residential Variation Statistics (EVR) of the Spanish Statistical Office (INE) which cover all changes of residence in the country’s 8,131 municipalities. The results show significant changes in internal migration patterns during 2020. In-migration to cities decreased, while out-migration increased, especially to rural areas. The latter flow had an important demographic impact on country villages. Despite these changes, internal migratory movements between and within urban areas dominated, as they did prior to the pandemic. At the same time, monthly data suggest that the changes are likely a temporary outcome.

Highlights

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several commentators, especially from non-academic fields, speculated about a potential exodus from urban to rural areas. This hypothesis has not been confirmed due to a lack of data with information capturing changes of residence at local level. This issue of Perspectives Demogràfiques offers the main results of a study led by the Centre for Demographic Studies and the Autonomous University of Barcelona which analyses internal migration between cities, suburbs, and rural areas in 2020, compared to migration patterns during the four years preceding the pandemic
Urbanisation and suburbanisation processes overlapped with migratory movements to certain rural areas close to cities (LópezGay, 2017), resulting in a spatial equilibrium in the internal migration system with balanced population flows between core cities, suburbs and rural areas (Rowe et al, 2019), with a slight trend towards suburbanisation in the largest cities (GilAlonso et al, 2021)
In the four years prior to the pandemic, internal out-migration from core cities, suburbs, towns and rural municipalities was largely offset by internal in-migration, these movements led to a slight increase of population in suburbs of the largest Spanish cities (Figure 1). This confirms the state of spatial equilibrium of internal migration across the urban hierarchy

Summary

Francisco Rowe

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several commentators, especially from non-academic fields, speculated about a potential exodus from urban to rural areas This hypothesis has not been confirmed due to a lack of data with information capturing changes of residence at local level. This issue of Perspectives Demogràfiques offers the main results of a study led by the Centre for Demographic Studies and the Autonomous University of Barcelona which analyses internal migration between cities, suburbs, and rural areas in 2020, compared to migration patterns during the four years preceding the pandemic. Inmigration to cities decreased, while out-migration increased, especially to rural areas The latter flow had an important demographic impact on country villages. Monthly data suggest that the changes are likely a temporary outcome

Rural areas became more attractive and cities less so

What have been the main destinations from the largest Spanish cities?

Has the pandemic reversed rural depopulation?

Findings

Bibliographic references